American Express stock declined 7.2% on Monday, February 23, 2026. The primary driver was a report from Citrini Research published over the weekend that outlined a hypothetical scenario in which artificial intelligence causes widespread white-collar job displacement, leading to a 10% unemployment rate and economic recession by 2028. The report, written from a June 2028 perspective, explored potential economic disruption if AI adoption continues at its current pace. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller stated that if February's jobs report comes in strongly, it would support holding interest rates steady rather than cutting them. This contradicted previous expectations for rate cuts. The combination of recession fears from AI disruption and reduced prospects for near-term interest rate cuts pressured financial stocks broadly, with American Express among the hardest hit along with other payment processors and financial services firms.
Read full analysisAmerican Express stock declined 7.2% on Monday, February 23, 2026. The primary driver was a report from Citrini Research published over the weekend that outlined a hypothetical scenario in which artificial intelligence causes widespread white-collar job displacement, leading to a 10% unemployment rate and economic recession by 2028. The report, written from a June 2028 perspective, explored potential economic disruption if AI adoption continues at its current pace. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller stated that if February's jobs report comes in strongly, it would support holding interest rates steady rather than cutting them. This contradicted previous expectations for rate cuts. The combination of recession fears from AI disruption and reduced prospects for near-term interest rate cuts pressured financial stocks broadly, with American Express among the hardest hit along with other payment processors and financial services firms.
American Express is a premium credit card issuer and payments company that earns revenue from merchant transaction fees, annual card fees, and interest on revolving balances, with a customer base skewed toward affluent and younger consumers. Its high-priced Dow component status and premium valuation make it particularly sensitive to both macro shocks like tariffs and emerging disruption narratives like AI agents potentially disintermediating traditional payments networks. The current selloff centers on fears that AI could eliminate the friction-based business models underpinning AXP's transaction revenue.